Jimmy Lightning (forecaster15) wrote in hurricanedean,
Jimmy Lightning
forecaster15
hurricanedean

5am update

Nothing much new to report. Winds are still holding steady at 145MPH (perhaps generously, according to the forecast discussion).

Speaking of the forecast discussion, let's just jump right in with some highlights:

THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS KEPT AT 125 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...WHICH MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE HIGH SIDE. IF INDEED DEAN HAS WEAKENED...THIS IS LIKELY THE RESULT OF INNER CORE PROCESSES...AND IS PROBABLY ONLY A SHORT-TERM CHANGE. THE LARGE-SCALE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT STILL APPEAR TO BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...SO....ASIDE FROM INNER-CORE-RELATED FLUCTUATIONS...DEAN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ATTAIN CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE STATUS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFDL...SHIPS...LGEM...AND FSSE GUIDANCE.

ASIDE FROM THE TROCHOIDAL WOBBLES THAT ARE COMMON WITH SUCH INTENSE HURRICANES...THE MOTION HAS BEEN BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE PAST 12-24 HOURS. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/16.

IT IS IMPERATIVE NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK. CONSIDERING THE MARGIN OF ERROR OF NHC PREDICTIONS...THE CORE OF THIS LARGE HURRICANE COULD EASILY BE 30-50 N MI ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FORECAST TRACK DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.

ANOTHER AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO MAKE A POSITION AND INTENSITY FIX ON DEAN AROUND 1200 UTC.


When Jamaica will likely be affected by...
Tropical Storm force winds: 8am local time
Hurricane force winds: 2pm local time
The core of the storm (passing near or over the island): 6pm local time







Good luck to everyone in the path of this storm.
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