Jimmy Lightning (forecaster15) wrote in hurricanedean,
Jimmy Lightning
forecaster15
hurricanedean

5pm update

Good news for Jamaica this afternoon: the center of Dean is passing south of the island! Currently the center of the storm is located 50 miles south of Kingston, moving west at 20 miles an hour. Radar data from Cuba shows that the northern eyewall will probably barely scrape the southern coast of the island, but even given that I believe this is still better then it could have been for the island.

As for the storm's overall status, not much is changed: winds are holding at 145MPH, the direction of movement is still west/west-northwest. This heading will bring the center of the storm close to Grand Cayman by tomorrow morning (around 8am local time at the current forward speed of 20mph). This means that tropical storm force winds will begin affecting the Cayman Islands tonight. A hurricane warning is currently in effect for the Cayman Islands and a hurricane watch is in effect for the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Current forecasts show the storm making landfall on the central or southern eastern coast of the Yucatan, which means Belize may also be affected by tropical storm and possibly hurricane force winds early Tuesday morning.

The threat to Texas lessens with each passing model run, at this point it seems pretty unlikely that Texas will take a direct hit from the storm, however the southern tip feeling some affects of the storm still is not out of the question.





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