Jimmy Lightning (forecaster15) wrote in hurricanedean,
Jimmy Lightning
forecaster15
hurricanedean

11pm update

From the forecast discussion:

DURING THE LAST PENETRATION BY THE AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AT 00Z...A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 914 MB WAS MEASURED. THE PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND WAS 162 KT...WHICH CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 145 KT AT THE SURFACE. DUE TO COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEMS...WE HAVE NOT RECEIVED ALL OF THE DROPSONDE AND SFMR DATA IN REAL-TIME. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO A POSSIBLY CONSERVATIVE 140 KT...PENDING A MORE THOROUGH EXAMINATION OF ALL OF THE AIRCRAFT DATA. ANOTHER AIRCRAFT WILL ARRIVE IN THE EYE OF DEAN IN A FEW HOURS...PRIOR TO LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE EVOLVING SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF DEAN REVEALS AN INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE PATTERN...AND A VERY WELL-DEFINED AND GRADUALLY CONTRACTING EYE WITH A DIAMETER OF ABOUT 20 N MI. REPORTS FROM THE AIRCRAFT...AND RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY...PROVIDE NO INDICATIONS OF ANY INNER-CORE STRUCTURAL CHANGES THAT WOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. DEAN IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STATUS DURING ITS ENTIRE STAY OVER YUCATAN...AND IT COULD STILL REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BEFORE FINAL LANDFALL IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.


On the assumption that Dean doesn't weaken prior to landfall, this would be the first landfalling Category 5 North Atlantic storm since Hurricane Andrew made landfall in Homestead, FL in August 1992.

At 11pm EDT/10pm Cancun time, the center of the storm was about 7.5 hours out from landfall. That's a little under 7 hours from right now.







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