Jimmy Lightning (forecaster15) wrote in hurricanedean,
Jimmy Lightning
forecaster15
hurricanedean

0900UTC update

From the latest public advisory:

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE EYE OF DEAN MADE LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR COSTA MAYA OR MAJAHUAL AROUND 330 AM CDT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...270 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS DEAN CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...DEAN IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 906 MB...26.75 INCHES...JUST BEFORE LANDFALL.

Given that Dean will probably weaken due to now being over land, and won't have enough time to get this strong again over the Gulf of Mexico, I think we can safely say that Dean's lowest pressure was 906mb, making it the 9th most intense Atlantic hurricane on record.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 12 TO 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE DEAN MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO... BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND NORTHERN HONDURAS...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


From the forecast discussion:

DEAN MADE LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR THE CRUISE SHIP PORT OF COSTA MAYA AROUND 0830 UTC...AND THE EYE IS NOW JUST INLAND. OBSERVATIONS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE WAS INTENSIFYING RIGHT UP TO LANDFALL.

SOME HISTORIC NOTES ARE IN ORDER HERE. THE 906 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE IS THE NINTH LOWEST ON RECORD FOR AN ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE...AND THE THIRD LOWEST AT LANDFALL BEHIND THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND HURRICANE GILBERT OF 1988 IN CANCUN MEXICO. DEAN IS ALSO THE FIRST CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN SINCE ANDREW OF 1992.

ASSUMING THAT THE INNER CORE IS NOT TOO DISRUPTED BY ITS INTERACTION WITH LAND...DEAN SHOULD REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE ITS FINAL LANDFALL IN MAINLAND MEXICO.




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