Jimmy Lightning (forecaster15) wrote in hurricanedean,
Jimmy Lightning
forecaster15
hurricanedean

5pm update

Well, we're not quite done with this storm! I'm sure we'll all be able to breath a sigh of relief once this storm is done for.

From the latest forecast discussion:

DEAN HAS EMERGED INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 70 KT IS AGAIN BASED ON TYPICAL DECAY RATES...AND HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE CYCLONE AROUND 00Z TO ASCERTAIN THE TRUE STRENGTH OF DEAN. BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE INNER CORE OF DEAN APPEARS TO BE LARGELY INTACT...WITH DEEP CONVECTION DIRECTLY OVER THE CENTER. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW RESTRENGTHENING TO BEGIN FAIRLY QUICKLY...AND DEAN COULD BE VERY NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY THE TIME OF ITS LANDFALL IN THE WESTERN GULF.

The fact that the core of the storm seems to have weathered it's passage over land isn't that great news for people in the area of the storm's second landfall (around or south of Tuxpan, Mexico), on the other hand, it's not going to be nearly as strong as it was upon first landfall this morning. Still, people in that area need to be ready for the possibility of a major hurricane hitting them.



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